This report estimates the private sector investment potential for delivering NDC sectoral targets in Kenya’s energy sector. It is organized into six sections. This section introduces the problem. Section 2 assesses greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate targets in relation to the energy sector. It also describes the roles of the energy sector in reducing emissions in Kenya and identifies targets. Section 3 focuses on the enabling environment, providing an overview of the main policies relevant to private sector investment and the energy sector, while also assessing macroeconomic risks, the business environment and the regulatory environment related to foreign investment.

Section 4 assesses investments in the energy sector in Kenya in renewable energy, energy efficiency and clean cooking. It also provides an overview of the main challenges for private sector investment. Section 5 analyses private sector investment potential in Kenya’s energy sector by subsector, using targets identified based on Kenya’s policy documents. Section 6 presents the reporting framework to align business opportunities with Kenya’s NDC targets in the energy sector and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Kenya is a commercial, transportation and communications hub for eastern Africa. Over the past five years, it has experienced moderate economic growth. In 2016, Kenya was the ninth-largest economy in Africa, becoming a lower middle-income country with gross national income per capita of $1,380.4 The agriculture and forestry sectors are the largest contributors to its economy, accounting for over 30 percent in 2018. 5However, these sectors are vulnerable to climate change impacts. As such, Kenya is committed to addressing climate change and submitted its NDC, which incorporates both adaptation and mitigation targets. Rising GHG emissions cause climate change and the energy sector is a significant contributor to those increases, making it one of the key sectors that will help Kenya achieve its NDC target in 2030, while also supporting its economic growth.